3-Day Forecast – 2023 May 06 0030 UTC

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:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 May 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 06-May 08 2023 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 06-May 08 2023

May 06 May 07 May 08
00-03UT 1.67 3.00 5.33 (G1)
03-06UT 2.00 3.67 6.00 (G2)
06-09UT 1.67 3.00 5.67 (G2)
09-12UT 1.00 3.00 5.00 (G1)
12-15UT 2.67 3.33 4.33
15-18UT 3.67 4.33 4.00
18-21UT 4.00 4.67 (G1) 4.00
21-00UT 4.33 5.00 (G1) 4.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 07-08 May, and G2
(Moderate) storms are likely on 08 May, due to a combination of coronal
hole high speed stream and CME effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 06-May 08 2023

May 06 May 07 May 08
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 05 2023 0801 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 06-May 08 2023

May 06 May 07 May 08
R1-R2 55% 55% 55%
R3 or greater 15% 15% 15%

Rationale: R1 (Minor) radio blackouts are likely over 06-08 May, with a
slight chance for R3 or greater events.