3-Day Forecast – 2023 Mar 12 1230 UTC

Home

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Mar 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 12-Mar 14 2023 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 12-Mar 14 2023

Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14
00-03UT 2.67 1.67 1.33
03-06UT 2.00 1.33 1.67
06-09UT 3.00 1.67 0.67
09-12UT 2.67 1.33 0.67
12-15UT 2.67 1.33 0.67
15-18UT 2.00 1.33 0.67
18-21UT 2.33 1.67 1.67
21-00UT 2.67 1.33 2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 12-Mar 14 2023

Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 12-Mar 14 2023

Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14
R1-R2 15% 15% 15%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.