3-Day Forecast – 2023 Jun 01 0030 UTC

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:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Jun 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 01-Jun 03 2023 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 01-Jun 03 2023

Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03
00-03UT 1.67 2.00 3.67
03-06UT 1.67 1.67 2.67
06-09UT 1.33 1.00 2.00
09-12UT 1.33 1.00 2.67
12-15UT 1.33 2.33 2.67
15-18UT 1.33 3.00 3.00
18-21UT 1.33 4.33 2.00
21-00UT 1.67 4.67 (G1) 2.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic levels are likely on 02 Jun due to
anticipated CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 01-Jun 03 2023

Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 31 2023 2252 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 01-Jun 03 2023

Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.