3-Day Forecast – 2023 Feb 25 0030 UTC

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:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Feb 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 25-Feb 27 2023 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 25-Feb 27 2023

Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb 27
00-03UT 2.67 2.33 2.00
03-06UT 2.67 2.00 2.00
06-09UT 2.00 2.00 2.33
09-12UT 1.67 2.00 2.67
12-15UT 1.00 2.00 2.67
15-18UT 1.00 2.00 3.00
18-21UT 2.00 2.00 2.67
21-00UT 2.67 2.67 3.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 25-Feb 27 2023

Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb 27
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Feb 24 2023 2030 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 25-Feb 27 2023

Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb 27
R1-R2 55% 55% 55%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: M-class flare events are likely over 25-27 Feb, with a slight
chance for X-class events.