3-Day Forecast – 2023 Apr 27 0030 UTC

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:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Apr 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 27-Apr 29 2023 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 27-Apr 29 2023

Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr 29
00-03UT 3.00 4.00 3.67
03-06UT 3.67 5.00 (G1) 3.33
06-09UT 3.00 4.00 3.33
09-12UT 3.00 4.67 (G1) 3.00
12-15UT 3.33 3.33 3.00
15-18UT 3.33 2.33 2.00
18-21UT 3.67 3.67 2.00
21-00UT 3.67 2.67 3.33

Rationale: G1 (Minor) storms are likely on 28 Apr with combined effects
from a CH HSS and the 24 Apr CME.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 27-Apr 29 2023

Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr 29
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 27-Apr 29 2023

Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr 29
R1-R2 10% 10% 10%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts for the next three days (27-29 Apr).