3-Day Forecast – 2023 Apr 11 0030 UTC

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:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Apr 11 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 11-Apr 13 2023 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 11-Apr 13 2023

Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr 13
00-03UT 3.33 3.67 3.00
03-06UT 3.67 3.67 2.33
06-09UT 3.33 3.00 2.00
09-12UT 3.00 2.67 2.00
12-15UT 3.00 2.67 2.00
15-18UT 3.33 1.67 2.00
18-21UT 3.67 2.67 2.00
21-00UT 3.33 2.67 2.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 11-Apr 13 2023

Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr 13
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 10 2023 0521 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 11-Apr 13 2023

Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr 13
R1-R2 35% 35% 35%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: A chance for isolated R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
due to M-class flare activity primarily from ARs 3272 and 3276 will
persist through 13 Apr.