3-Day Forecast – 2023 Apr 05 0030 UTC

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:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Apr 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 05-Apr 07 2023 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 05-Apr 07 2023

Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr 07
00-03UT 3.00 2.00 1.67
03-06UT 3.67 3.00 1.33
06-09UT 2.33 2.67 1.33
09-12UT 2.00 1.67 1.33
12-15UT 1.00 2.00 1.33
15-18UT 1.33 1.67 1.33
18-21UT 1.67 1.67 1.67
21-00UT 3.00 2.00 1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 05-Apr 07 2023

Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr 07
S1 or greater 5% 5% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 05-Apr 07 2023

Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr 07
R1-R2 15% 15% 10%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 1%

Rationale: A slight chance for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts will persist through 07 Apr primarily due to the growth and
development exhibited by AR 3270.