Geomagnetic Storm Forecast

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3-Day Forecast - 2023 Nov 18 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Nov 18 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 18-Nov 20 2023 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 18-Nov 20 2023

             Nov 18       Nov 19       Nov 20
00-03UT       0.33         1.67         5.00 (G1)
03-06UT       1.00         1.33         4.00     
06-09UT       0.67         1.33         3.67     
09-12UT       1.00         1.67         3.33     
12-15UT       1.00         1.67         3.00     
15-18UT       1.33         2.33         2.33     
18-21UT       1.33         3.33         2.00     
21-00UT       1.67         4.67 (G1)    3.00     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 19-20 Nov due to
CME influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 18-Nov 20 2023

              Nov 18  Nov 19  Nov 20
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 18 2023 0542 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 18-Nov 20 2023

              Nov 18        Nov 19        Nov 20
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts all three days.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 Nov 17 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Nov 17 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 17-Nov 19 2023 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 17-Nov 19 2023

             Nov 17       Nov 18       Nov 19
00-03UT       0.67         1.67         1.67     
03-06UT       0.33         2.00         1.67     
06-09UT       0.33         1.33         2.00     
09-12UT       0.67         1.00         2.33     
12-15UT       2.00         0.67         2.00     
15-18UT       1.33         1.00         3.33     
18-21UT       2.33         1.33         4.00     
21-00UT       2.00         2.00         4.67 (G1)

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 19 Nov due to CME
influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 17-Nov 19 2023

              Nov 17  Nov 18  Nov 19
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 17-Nov 19 2023

              Nov 17        Nov 18        Nov 19
R1-R2           15%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts all three days.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 Nov 16 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Nov 16 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 16-Nov 18 2023 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 16-Nov 18 2023

             Nov 16       Nov 17       Nov 18
00-03UT       1.67         2.33         1.67     
03-06UT       1.00         2.67         2.00     
06-09UT       2.67         2.33         1.33     
09-12UT       2.00         2.00         1.00     
12-15UT       2.00         2.00         0.67     
15-18UT       2.00         1.67         1.00     
18-21UT       2.67         2.33         1.33     
21-00UT       2.67         2.00         2.00     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2023

              Nov 16  Nov 17  Nov 18
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2023

              Nov 16        Nov 17        Nov 18
R1-R2           15%           15%           20%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts all three days.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 Nov 15 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Nov 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 15-Nov 17 2023 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 15-Nov 17 2023

             Nov 15       Nov 16       Nov 17
00-03UT       2.33         2.67         2.33     
03-06UT       1.67         3.00         2.33     
06-09UT       2.33         2.67         2.33     
09-12UT       2.00         2.33         2.33     
12-15UT       2.00         1.67         2.33     
15-18UT       2.67         2.33         2.33     
18-21UT       3.00         2.00         1.67     
21-00UT       3.67         2.67         2.00     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 15-Nov 17 2023

              Nov 15  Nov 16  Nov 17
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 14 2023 2305 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 15-Nov 17 2023

              Nov 15        Nov 16        Nov 17
R1-R2           20%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on 15-17 Nov.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 Nov 14 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Nov 14 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 14-Nov 16 2023 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 14-Nov 16 2023

             Nov 14       Nov 15       Nov 16
00-03UT       2.33         3.00         2.67     
03-06UT       1.00         3.00         3.00     
06-09UT       0.33         2.33         2.67     
09-12UT       1.00         2.00         2.33     
12-15UT       1.67         2.00         1.67     
15-18UT       2.00         2.00         2.33     
18-21UT       2.67         2.67         2.00     
21-00UT       2.67         3.67         2.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 14-Nov 16 2023

              Nov 14  Nov 15  Nov 16
S1 or greater    5%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 14-Nov 16 2023

              Nov 14        Nov 15        Nov 16
R1-R2           25%           20%           15%
R3 or greater    5%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 14 Nov and a slight chance on 15-16 Nov.
                        

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