Geomagnetic Storm Forecast

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3-Day Forecast - 2023 Nov 29 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Nov 29 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 29-Dec 01 2023 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 29-Dec 01 2023

             Nov 29       Nov 30       Dec 01
00-03UT       1.00         5.00 (G1)    5.00 (G1)
03-06UT       2.00         5.33 (G1)    5.67 (G2)
06-09UT       2.00         4.67 (G1)    5.00 (G1)
09-12UT       1.33         4.00         4.33     
12-15UT       2.00         3.33         4.00     
15-18UT       2.33         3.00         3.00     
18-21UT       2.67         3.33         3.33     
21-00UT       4.00         3.67         3.67     

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) or greater geomagnetic storms are
likely on 30 Nov and 01 Dec due to influences from multiple CMEs.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 29-Dec 01 2023

              Nov 29  Nov 30  Dec 01
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms all three days mainly due to the potential from Region
3500.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 28 2023 1950 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 29-Dec 01 2023

              Nov 29        Nov 30        Dec 01
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts all three
days.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 Nov 28 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Nov 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 28-Nov 30 2023 is 5.33 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 28-Nov 30 2023

             Nov 28       Nov 29       Nov 30
00-03UT       2.00         1.67         5.00 (G1)
03-06UT       2.00         2.00         5.33 (G1)
06-09UT       2.00         1.33         4.67 (G1)
09-12UT       2.00         1.33         4.00     
12-15UT       1.33         2.00         3.33     
15-18UT       1.33         2.33         3.00     
18-21UT       1.33         2.67         3.33     
21-00UT       1.33         4.00         3.67     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 30 Nov due to
influences from a CME that left the Sun on 27 Nov.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 28-Nov 30 2023

              Nov 28  Nov 29  Nov 30
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 28-Nov 30 2023

              Nov 28        Nov 29        Nov 30
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
all three days.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 Nov 27 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Nov 27 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 27-Nov 29 2023 is 2.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 27-Nov 29 2023

             Nov 27       Nov 28       Nov 29
00-03UT       1.33         1.67         1.67     
03-06UT       1.67         1.67         1.67     
06-09UT       2.33         1.67         1.33     
09-12UT       1.33         1.33         1.33     
12-15UT       1.33         1.33         1.33     
15-18UT       1.33         1.33         1.33     
18-21UT       1.67         1.33         1.33     
21-00UT       2.00         1.33         1.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 27-Nov 29 2023

              Nov 27  Nov 28  Nov 29
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 27-Nov 29 2023

              Nov 27        Nov 28        Nov 29
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts exists
throughout the forecast period.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 Nov 26 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Nov 26 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 26-Nov 28 2023 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 26-Nov 28 2023

             Nov 26       Nov 27       Nov 28
00-03UT       4.00         4.00         3.00     
03-06UT       2.33         4.00         2.67     
06-09UT       3.33         3.00         2.33     
09-12UT       2.00         2.00         2.00     
12-15UT       3.33         3.00         2.00     
15-18UT       3.00         2.00         1.33     
18-21UT       3.00         2.00         1.33     
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    3.00         1.67     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 26 Nov
due to the combined influence from a positive polarity CH HSS and the
periphery of a CME that left the Sun late on 22 Nov.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 26-Nov 28 2023

              Nov 26  Nov 27  Nov 28
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 26-Nov 28 2023

              Nov 26        Nov 27        Nov 28
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are
likely throughout the forecast period.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 Nov 25 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Nov 25 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 25-Nov 27 2023 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 25-Nov 27 2023

             Nov 25       Nov 26       Nov 27
00-03UT       3.00         4.00         4.00     
03-06UT       3.00         3.67         4.00     
06-09UT       4.67 (G1)    2.33         3.00     
09-12UT       4.67 (G1)    1.67         2.00     
12-15UT       4.00         1.67         3.00     
15-18UT       3.00         4.00         2.00     
18-21UT       2.33         5.00 (G1)    2.00     
21-00UT       3.00         3.33         3.00     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are expected on 25 Nov
due to persistent CME effects. G1 storm levels are also likely on 26 Nov
due to the combined influence from a positive polarity CH HSS and the
periphery of a CME that left the Sun late on 22 Nov.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 25-Nov 27 2023

              Nov 25  Nov 26  Nov 27
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation
storms exists due to the flare potential from multiple regions on the
visible disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 25-Nov 27 2023

              Nov 25        Nov 26        Nov 27
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for an R3 (Strong) event, throughout the forecast period.
This is due to the flare potential from multiple regions on the visible
disk.
                        

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