Geomagnetic Storm Forecast

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3-Day Forecast - 2024 Jan 28 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jan 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 28-Jan 30 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 28-Jan 30 2024

             Jan 28       Jan 29       Jan 30
00-03UT       1.67         3.00         3.00     
03-06UT       2.00         2.67         2.67     
06-09UT       2.00         2.67         2.33     
09-12UT       1.33         2.67         2.00     
12-15UT       1.00         2.67         1.33     
15-18UT       1.67         2.00         1.00     
18-21UT       2.67         1.67         1.67     
21-00UT       3.00         2.00         2.33     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 28-Jan 30 2024

              Jan 28  Jan 29  Jan 30
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 28-Jan 30 2024

              Jan 28        Jan 29        Jan 30
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 28-30 Jan.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Jan 27 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jan 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 27-Jan 29 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 27-Jan 29 2024

             Jan 27       Jan 28       Jan 29
00-03UT       4.00         3.00         3.00     
03-06UT       4.33         3.00         2.67     
06-09UT       3.00         3.00         2.67     
09-12UT       3.33         3.67         2.67     
12-15UT       4.00         3.33         2.67     
15-18UT       4.33         3.33         2.00     
18-21UT       4.67 (G1)    3.67         1.67     
21-00UT       4.33         3.67         2.00     

Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely, with a
chance of isolated G2 (Moderate) storm periods on 27 Jan due to the
possible impacts of several nearby passing CMEs from events on 22-23
Jan. Active conditions are expected on 28 Jan with waning CME effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 27-Jan 29 2024

              Jan 27  Jan 28  Jan 29
S1 or greater   10%      5%      5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux to reach S1 (Minor) threshold on 27 Jan - primarily due to the
potential and favorable location of AR 3561.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 27-Jan 29 2024

              Jan 27        Jan 28        Jan 29
R1-R2           45%           40%           35%
R3 or greater   10%            5%            5%

Rationale: A chance for isolated R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) blackouts due to
M-class flare activity will persist through 29 Jan primarily due to ARs
3559 and 3561. Probabilities decrease somewhat on 28 and 29 Jan as AR
3561 rotates beyond the western limb of the visible disk.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Jan 26 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jan 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 26-Jan 28 2024 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 26-Jan 28 2024

             Jan 26       Jan 27       Jan 28
00-03UT       4.00         4.00         3.00     
03-06UT       4.00         4.33         3.00     
06-09UT       2.33         4.00         3.00     
09-12UT       2.00         4.00         3.67     
12-15UT       2.67         4.00         3.33     
15-18UT       4.00         4.33         3.33     
18-21UT       5.00 (G1)    4.67 (G1)    3.67     
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    4.33         3.67     

Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely, with a
chance of isolated G2 (Moderate) storm periods on 26-27 Jan due to the
possible impacts of several nearby passing CMEs from events on 22-23
Jan. Active conditions are expected on 28 Jan with waning CME effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 26-Jan 28 2024

              Jan 26  Jan 27  Jan 28
S1 or greater   10%      5%      1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux to reach S1 (Minor) threshold through 27 Jan - primarily due to the
potential and favorable location of AR 3561.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 26-Jan 28 2024

              Jan 26        Jan 27        Jan 28
R1-R2           45%           45%           35%
R3 or greater   10%            5%            1%

Rationale: There is a decreasing chance for radio blackouts as ARs 3559
and 3561 decay and rotate westward.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Jan 24 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jan 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 24-Jan 26 2024 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 24-Jan 26 2024

             Jan 24       Jan 25       Jan 26
00-03UT       3.67         3.00         4.00     
03-06UT       3.00         2.67         4.00     
06-09UT       3.33         3.00         2.33     
09-12UT       1.67         3.33         2.00     
12-15UT       3.67         4.67 (G1)    2.67     
15-18UT       3.33         3.67         4.00     
18-21UT       3.00         3.00         5.00 (G1)
21-00UT       5.00 (G1)    3.67         4.67 (G1)

Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely, with a
chance of isolated G2 (Moderate) storm periods on 24-26 Jan due to the
possible impacts of several nearby passing CMEs.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 24-Jan 26 2024

              Jan 24  Jan 25  Jan 26
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale: Theres a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux to reach S1 (Minor) threshold through 26 Jan, mostly due to the
potential and favorable location of AR 3561.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jan 23 2024 1640 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 24-Jan 26 2024

              Jan 24        Jan 25        Jan 26
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected through
26 Jan, along with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio
blackouts, due primarily to the flare potential of ARs 3559 and 3561.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Jan 23 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jan 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 23-Jan 25 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 23-Jan 25 2024

             Jan 23       Jan 24       Jan 25
00-03UT       2.33         3.00         2.00     
03-06UT       2.67         3.00         2.67     
06-09UT       2.00         3.00         3.67     
09-12UT       1.33         2.00         4.00     
12-15UT       3.33         2.00         4.67 (G1)
15-18UT       5.00 (G1)    2.00         5.33 (G1)
18-21UT       5.67 (G2)    1.00         4.00     
21-00UT       5.00 (G1)    2.00         4.33     

Rationale: Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are
likely on 23 Jan due to the anticipated passage of a CME that left the
Sun on 20 Jan. Quiet and unsettled levels are expected on 24 Jan due to
waning CME influences. G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely on 25 Jan
with anticipated arrival of the CME that left the Sun on 22 Jan.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 23-Jan 25 2024

              Jan 23  Jan 24  Jan 25
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale: A slight chance for an S1(Minor) solar radiation event will
persist throughout the forecast period primarily due to growth and
activity exhibited by AR 3561.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jan 23 2024 0331 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 23-Jan 25 2024

              Jan 23        Jan 24        Jan 25
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely through 25
Jan primarily due to activity from ARs 3559 and 3561.
                        

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