Geomagnetic Storm Forecast

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3-Day Forecast - 2024 Jan 13 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jan 13 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 13-Jan 15 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 13-Jan 15 2024

             Jan 13       Jan 14       Jan 15
00-03UT       0.67         2.00         1.67     
03-06UT       0.33         2.67         1.67     
06-09UT       0.33         2.33         1.33     
09-12UT       1.33         1.33         1.33     
12-15UT       1.00         1.33         1.33     
15-18UT       2.33         1.67         1.33     
18-21UT       3.00         1.67         1.33     
21-00UT       3.00         2.67         1.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 13-Jan 15 2024

              Jan 13  Jan 14  Jan 15
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 13-Jan 15 2024

              Jan 13        Jan 14        Jan 15
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over the next three days.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Jan 12 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jan 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 12-Jan 14 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 12-Jan 14 2024

             Jan 12       Jan 13       Jan 14
00-03UT       0.67         2.33         2.00     
03-06UT       1.33         1.33         2.33     
06-09UT       1.33         1.00         2.33     
09-12UT       1.33         1.00         2.33     
12-15UT       1.33         1.00         2.33     
15-18UT       1.67         2.33         2.33     
18-21UT       1.67         3.00         1.67     
21-00UT       2.00         3.00         2.33     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 12-Jan 14 2024

              Jan 12  Jan 13  Jan 14
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jan 11 2024 1752 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 12-Jan 14 2024

              Jan 12        Jan 13        Jan 14
R1-R2           45%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
all three days.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Jan 12 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jan 12 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 12-Jan 14 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 12-Jan 14 2024

             Jan 12       Jan 13       Jan 14
00-03UT       1.67         2.33         2.00     
03-06UT       1.00         1.33         2.33     
06-09UT       1.00         1.00         2.33     
09-12UT       1.00         1.00         2.33     
12-15UT       1.33         1.00         2.33     
15-18UT       1.67         2.33         2.33     
18-21UT       1.67         3.00         1.67     
21-00UT       2.00         3.00         2.33     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 12-Jan 14 2024

              Jan 12  Jan 13  Jan 14
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jan 11 2024 1752 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 12-Jan 14 2024

              Jan 12        Jan 13        Jan 14
R1-R2           45%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: A chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due
isolated M-class flare activity will persist through the forecast
period.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Jan 11 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jan 11 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 11-Jan 13 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 11-Jan 13 2024

             Jan 11       Jan 12       Jan 13
00-03UT       2.33         1.67         2.33     
03-06UT       2.67         1.33         1.33     
06-09UT       2.67         1.33         1.00     
09-12UT       1.33         1.33         1.00     
12-15UT       1.67         1.33         1.00     
15-18UT       1.33         1.33         2.33     
18-21UT       1.67         1.67         3.00     
21-00UT       1.67         1.67         3.00     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 11-Jan 13 2024

              Jan 11  Jan 12  Jan 13
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jan 102328 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 11-Jan 13 2024

              Jan 11        Jan 12        Jan 13
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
all three days.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Jan 08 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jan 08 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 08-Jan 10 2024 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 08-Jan 10 2024

             Jan 08       Jan 09       Jan 10
00-03UT       0.33         2.67         1.67     
03-06UT       0.67         2.33         1.67     
06-09UT       0.33         2.33         1.67     
09-12UT       0.67         2.33         1.33     
12-15UT       2.67         2.00         1.33     
15-18UT       2.67         2.00         1.33     
18-21UT       2.67         2.00         1.33     
21-00UT       2.67         2.00         1.33     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 08-Jan 10 2024

              Jan 08  Jan 09  Jan 10
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms over the next three days.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 08-Jan 10 2024

              Jan 08        Jan 09        Jan 10
R1-R2           45%           45%           45%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, and
slight chance for R3 (Strong), exists over the next three days.
                        

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