Geomagnetic Storm Forecast

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3-Day Forecast - 2024 May 02 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 02 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 02-May 04 2024 is 4.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 02-May 04 2024

             May 02       May 03       May 04
00-03UT       2.67         3.67         3.33     
03-06UT       2.00         3.33         2.33     
06-09UT       2.67         3.00         3.00     
09-12UT       3.33         3.33         2.67     
12-15UT       3.00         3.00         2.67     
15-18UT       3.33         3.33         4.00     
18-21UT       4.00         3.33         4.33     
21-00UT       4.33         3.67         4.33     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 02-May 04 2024

              May 02  May 03  May 04
S1 or greater   10%      5%      5%

Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm will
exist on 02 May given the relatively recent activity from AR 3654 and
its current location.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 01 2024 1444 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 02-May 04 2024

              May 02        May 03        May 04
R1-R2           55%           40%           30%
R3 or greater   10%            5%            5%

Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare
activity remain likely on 02 May given the flare histories of ARs 3654
and 3663. Probabilities decrease to a just a chance 03-04 May as AR 3654
rotates off the visible disk.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 May 02 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 02-May 04 2024 is 4.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 02-May 04 2024

             May 02       May 03       May 04
00-03UT       2.33         3.67         3.33     
03-06UT       3.33         3.33         2.33     
06-09UT       2.67         3.00         3.00     
09-12UT       2.33         3.33         2.67     
12-15UT       3.00         3.00         2.67     
15-18UT       3.33         3.33         4.00     
18-21UT       4.00         3.33         4.33     
21-00UT       4.33         3.67         4.33     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 02-May 04 2024

              May 02  May 03  May 04
S1 or greater   10%      5%      5%

Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm will
exist on 02 May given the relatively recent activity from AR 3654 and
its current location.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 01 2024 1444 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 02-May 04 2024

              May 02        May 03        May 04
R1-R2           55%           40%           30%
R3 or greater   10%            5%            5%

Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare
activity remain likely on 02 May given the flare histories of ARs 3654
and 3663. Probabilities decrease to a just a chance 03-04 May as AR 3654
rotates off the visible disk.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 May 01 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 01-May 03 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 01-May 03 2024

             May 01       May 02       May 03
00-03UT       4.67 (G1)    3.67         3.67     
03-06UT       4.00         4.00         3.33     
06-09UT       3.00         3.67         3.00     
09-12UT       2.33         3.33         3.33     
12-15UT       2.67         3.00         3.00     
15-18UT       2.33         2.67         3.33     
18-21UT       3.00         3.67         3.33     
21-00UT       3.33         3.67         3.67     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is expected during the early
hours of 01 May due to transient influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 01-May 03 2024

              May 01  May 02  May 03
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 30 2024 2346 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 01-May 03 2024

              May 01        May 02        May 03
R1-R2           55%           45%           35%
R3 or greater   10%           10%            5%

Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare
activity primarily from AR 3654 are likely on 01 May.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Apr 30 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Apr 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 30-May 02 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 30-May 02 2024

             Apr 30       May 01       May 02
00-03UT       2.33         1.67         3.67     
03-06UT       2.67         2.67         4.00     
06-09UT       2.00         3.67         3.67     
09-12UT       2.00         3.33         3.33     
12-15UT       1.67         3.00         3.00     
15-18UT       1.67         3.33         2.67     
18-21UT       2.67         3.67         3.67     
21-00UT       1.67         4.00         3.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2024

              Apr 30  May 01  May 02
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 29 2024 0111 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2024

              Apr 30        May 01        May 02
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: A chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to
M-class flare activity will persist through 02 May mainly due to the
evolution and recent flare activity exhibited by AR 3654.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Apr 29 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Apr 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 29-May 01 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 29-May 01 2024

             Apr 29       Apr 30       May 01
00-03UT       2.67         2.33         2.00     
03-06UT       2.00         2.67         2.67     
06-09UT       2.33         2.00         3.67     
09-12UT       2.67         2.00         3.33     
12-15UT       2.33         1.67         3.00     
15-18UT       2.33         1.67         2.67     
18-21UT       2.33         2.67         2.67     
21-00UT       2.67         1.67         3.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. 

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 29-May 01 2024

              Apr 29  Apr 30  May 01
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 29-May 01 2024

              Apr 29        Apr 30        May 01
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 29-30 Apr and 01 May.
                        

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