Geomagnetic Storm Forecast

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3-Day Forecast - 2024 Mar 30 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Mar 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 30-Apr 01 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 30-Apr 01 2024

             Mar 30       Mar 31       Apr 01
00-03UT       3.00         2.00         2.67     
03-06UT       2.00         2.00         2.00     
06-09UT       3.00         3.00         2.33     
09-12UT       2.00         2.00         2.33     
12-15UT       1.00         3.00         2.33     
15-18UT       1.00         3.00         2.33     
18-21UT       2.00         2.00         2.33     
21-00UT       2.00         2.00         2.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 30-Apr 01 2024

              Mar 30  Mar 31  Apr 01
S1 or greater   15%     10%      5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms on 30-31 Mar due to the flare potential for Region
3615.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 29 2024 0230 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 30-Apr 01 2024

              Mar 30        Mar 31        Apr 01
R1-R2           75%           75%            5%
R3 or greater   25%           25%            1%

Rationale: Due to the flare potential of Region 3615, R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3
(Strong), over the next two days. Probabilities decrease for 01 Apr as
Region 3615 rotates beyond the western limb.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Mar 29 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Mar 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 29-Mar 31 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 29-Mar 31 2024

             Mar 29       Mar 30       Mar 31
00-03UT       2.33         3.00         2.00     
03-06UT       2.00         2.00         2.00     
06-09UT       2.00         3.00         3.00     
09-12UT       2.00         2.00         2.00     
12-15UT       2.00         1.00         3.00     
15-18UT       2.00         1.00         3.00     
18-21UT       2.00         2.00         2.00     
21-00UT       2.33         2.00         2.00     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 29-Mar 31 2024

              Mar 29  Mar 30  Mar 31
S1 or greater   30%     10%      5%

Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation
storms on 29 Mar due to the flare potential for Region 3615.
Probabilities decrease for 30 and 31 Mar as Region 3615 rotates beyond
the western limb.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 28 2024 2056 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 29-Mar 31 2024

              Mar 29        Mar 30        Mar 31
R1-R2           75%           75%            5%
R3 or greater   25%           25%            1%

Rationale: Due to the flare potential of Region 3615, R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3
(Strong), over the next two days. Probabilities decrease for 31 Mar as
Region 3615 rotates beyond the western limb.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Mar 28 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Mar 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 28-Mar 30 2024 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 28-Mar 30 2024

             Mar 28       Mar 29       Mar 30
00-03UT       1.67         2.67         2.67     
03-06UT       1.67         2.00         2.33     
06-09UT       1.67         2.33         2.00     
09-12UT       1.33         2.33         2.33     
12-15UT       1.33         2.33         1.33     
15-18UT       1.33         2.33         1.00     
18-21UT       1.33         2.33         2.33     
21-00UT       1.33         2.67         2.33     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 28-Mar 30 2024

              Mar 28  Mar 29  Mar 30
S1 or greater   30%     30%     10%

Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation
storms over the next three days due to the flare potential for Region
3615.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 27 2024 0641 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 28-Mar 30 2024

              Mar 28        Mar 29        Mar 30
R1-R2           75%           75%           40%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           10%

Rationale: Due to the flare potential of Region 3615, R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3
(Strong), over the next three days.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Mar 27 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Mar 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 27-Mar 29 2024 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 27-Mar 29 2024

             Mar 27       Mar 28       Mar 29
00-03UT       2.33         1.67         2.67     
03-06UT       2.67         1.67         2.00     
06-09UT       2.33         1.67         2.33     
09-12UT       1.67         1.33         2.33     
12-15UT       1.33         1.33         2.33     
15-18UT       2.00         1.33         2.33     
18-21UT       2.00         1.33         2.33     
21-00UT       2.33         1.33         2.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 27-Mar 29 2024

              Mar 27  Mar 28  Mar 29
S1 or greater   30%     30%     30%

Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation
storms over the next three days due primarily to the flare potential of
Region 3615.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 26 2024 1330 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 27-Mar 29 2024

              Mar 27        Mar 28        Mar 29
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) are expected over the next three days
due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3615.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Mar 26 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Mar 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 26-Mar 28 2024 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 26-Mar 28 2024

             Mar 26       Mar 27       Mar 28
00-03UT       5.00 (G1)    2.33         1.67     
03-06UT       4.00         2.67         1.67     
06-09UT       4.00         2.33         1.67     
09-12UT       3.67         1.67         1.33     
12-15UT       3.00         1.33         1.33     
15-18UT       2.33         2.00         1.33     
18-21UT       2.33         2.00         1.33     
21-00UT       3.33         2.33         1.33     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are possible on 26 Mar due to
waning effects of a CME that left the Sun on 21 Mar.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 26-Mar 28 2024

              Mar 26  Mar 27  Mar 28
S1 or greater   50%     50%     25%

Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation
storms on 26-28 Mar, primarily due to the flare potential from Region
3615.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 25 2024 0644 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 26-Mar 28 2024

              Mar 26        Mar 27        Mar 28
R1-R2           85%           85%           85%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected on 26-28
Mar due to the flare potential from Region 3615.
                        

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