Geomagnetic Storm Forecast

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3-Day Forecast - 2024 Jul 03 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jul 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 03-Jul 05 2024 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 03-Jul 05 2024

             Jul 03       Jul 04       Jul 05
00-03UT       3.00         4.00         2.67     
03-06UT       2.67         3.67         2.33     
06-09UT       2.67         2.67         2.33     
09-12UT       2.00         2.00         2.00     
12-15UT       1.67         1.67         2.00     
15-18UT       2.67         1.67         2.33     
18-21UT       4.33         2.00         2.00     
21-00UT       5.00 (G1)    2.67         2.00     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on Jul 03 due to
potential CME influence.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 03-Jul 05 2024

              Jul 03  Jul 04  Jul 05
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 03-Jul 05 2024

              Jul 03        Jul 04        Jul 05
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 03-05 Jul.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Jul 02 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jul 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 02-Jul 04 2024 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 02-Jul 04 2024

             Jul 02       Jul 03       Jul 04
00-03UT       3.67         3.00         4.00     
03-06UT       3.67         2.67         3.67     
06-09UT       2.67         2.67         2.67     
09-12UT       2.67         2.00         2.00     
12-15UT       2.00         1.67         1.67     
15-18UT       1.67         2.67         1.67     
18-21UT       1.00         4.33         2.00     
21-00UT       2.67         5.00 (G1)    2.67     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are likely on Jul 03
due to potential CME influence.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 02-Jul 04 2024

              Jul 02  Jul 03  Jul 04
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 01 2024 1102 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 02-Jul 04 2024

              Jul 02        Jul 03        Jul 04
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 02-04 Jul.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Jul 01 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jul 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 01-Jul 03 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 01-Jul 03 2024

             Jul 01       Jul 02       Jul 03
00-03UT       2.33         3.67         3.00     
03-06UT       1.67         3.67         2.67     
06-09UT       2.67         2.67         2.67     
09-12UT       2.67         2.67         2.00     
12-15UT       2.33         2.00         1.67     
15-18UT       3.00         1.67         2.67     
18-21UT       4.00         1.00         3.67     
21-00UT       4.00         2.67         2.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 01-Jul 03 2024

              Jul 01  Jul 02  Jul 03
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 01-Jul 03 2024

              Jul 01        Jul 02        Jul 03
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 01-03 Jul.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Jun 30 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jun 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 30-Jul 02 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 30-Jul 02 2024

             Jun 30       Jul 01       Jul 02
00-03UT       3.33         2.33         3.67     
03-06UT       2.67         1.67         3.67     
06-09UT       2.33         2.67         2.67     
09-12UT       1.67         2.67         2.67     
12-15UT       1.33         2.33         2.00     
15-18UT       1.00         3.00         1.67     
18-21UT       1.33         4.00         1.00     
21-00UT       1.67         4.00         2.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 30-Jul 02 2024

              Jun 30  Jul 01  Jul 02
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 30-Jul 02 2024

              Jun 30        Jul 01        Jul 02
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 30 Jun - 02 Jul.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Jun 29 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jun 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 8 (NOAA Scale
G4).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 29-Jul 01 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 29-Jul 01 2024

             Jun 29       Jun 30       Jul 01
00-03UT       4.00         3.33         2.33     
03-06UT       4.67 (G1)    2.67         1.67     
06-09UT       4.00         2.33         2.67     
09-12UT       3.67         1.67         2.67     
12-15UT       2.67         1.33         2.33     
15-18UT       2.67         1.00         3.00     
18-21UT       1.67         1.33         4.00     
21-00UT       2.67         1.67         4.00     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 29 Jan due to CME
influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 29-Jul 01 2024

              Jun 29  Jun 30  Jul 01
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 29-Jul 01 2024

              Jun 29        Jun 30        Jul 01
R1-R2           50%           50%           50%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 28-30 Jun.
                        

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