Geomagnetic Storm Forecast

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3-Day Forecast - 2024 Aug 10 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Aug 10 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 10-Aug 12 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 10-Aug 12 2024

             Aug 10       Aug 11       Aug 12
00-03UT       3.00         5.67 (G2)    5.67 (G2)
03-06UT       5.67 (G2)    5.33 (G1)    5.67 (G2)
06-09UT       5.67 (G2)    3.67         5.00 (G1)
09-12UT       4.00         3.67         5.00 (G1)
12-15UT       3.33         2.67         4.67 (G1)
15-18UT       4.33         2.00         4.00     
18-21UT       4.67 (G1)    3.33         3.67     
21-00UT       5.67 (G2)    4.67 (G1)    3.67     

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on
10-12 Aug due to the arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on 07-08 Aug.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 10-Aug 12 2024

              Aug 10  Aug 11  Aug 12
S1 or greater   20%     20%     20%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms through 12 Aug.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Aug 09 2024 2123 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 10-Aug 12 2024

              Aug 10        Aug 11        Aug 12
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 10-12 Aug.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Aug 09 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Aug 09 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 09-Aug 11 2024 is 6.33 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 09-Aug 11 2024

             Aug 09       Aug 10       Aug 11
00-03UT       1.67         6.00 (G2)    6.33 (G2)
03-06UT       1.67         5.67 (G2)    6.00 (G2)
06-09UT       3.00         5.33 (G1)    4.67 (G1)
09-12UT       3.00         4.00         3.67     
12-15UT       4.00         3.33         2.67     
15-18UT       4.33         4.33         2.00     
18-21UT       6.00 (G2)    5.33 (G1)    3.33     
21-00UT       6.33 (G2)    6.00 (G2)    3.33     

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on
09-11 Aug due to the arrival of CMEs from 07-08 Aug.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 09-Aug 11 2024

              Aug 09  Aug 10  Aug 11
S1 or greater   20%     20%     20%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms through 11 Aug.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Aug 08 2024 1935 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 09-Aug 11 2024

              Aug 09        Aug 10        Aug 11
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 09-11 Aug.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Aug 08 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Aug 08 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 08-Aug 10 2024 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 08-Aug 10 2024

             Aug 08       Aug 09       Aug 10
00-03UT       2.33         1.67         5.00 (G1)
03-06UT       1.67         1.67         5.67 (G2)
06-09UT       1.67         3.00         5.67 (G2)
09-12UT       1.33         3.00         5.00 (G1)
12-15UT       1.33         4.00         4.00     
15-18UT       1.67         5.00 (G1)    3.67     
18-21UT       1.67         5.33 (G1)    3.67     
21-00UT       2.00         6.00 (G2)    3.33     

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on
09-10 Aug due to the arrival of a CME from 07 Aug.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 08-Aug 10 2024

              Aug 08  Aug 09  Aug 10
S1 or greater   20%     20%     20%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms through 10 Aug.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Aug 07 2024 1854 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 08-Aug 10 2024

              Aug 08        Aug 09        Aug 10
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 08-10 Aug.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Aug 07 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Aug 07 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 07-Aug 09 2024 is 3.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 07-Aug 09 2024

             Aug 07       Aug 08       Aug 09
00-03UT       2.67         2.33         1.67     
03-06UT       2.33         1.67         1.67     
06-09UT       1.67         1.67         1.67     
09-12UT       1.67         1.33         3.33     
12-15UT       1.67         1.33         3.00     
15-18UT       1.67         1.67         3.00     
18-21UT       2.00         1.67         3.00     
21-00UT       2.33         2.00         3.33     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 07-Aug 09 2024

              Aug 07  Aug 08  Aug 09
S1 or greater   20%     20%     20%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms through 09 Aug.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Aug 05 2024 1340 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 07-Aug 09 2024

              Aug 07        Aug 08        Aug 09
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 07-09 Aug.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Aug 06 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Aug 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 06-Aug 08 2024 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 06-Aug 08 2024

             Aug 06       Aug 07       Aug 08
00-03UT       2.67         2.67         1.67     
03-06UT       2.00         2.33         1.67     
06-09UT       2.33         1.67         1.67     
09-12UT       2.33         1.67         1.33     
12-15UT       2.33         1.67         1.33     
15-18UT       2.33         1.67         1.33     
18-21UT       2.33         2.00         1.33     
21-00UT       2.67         2.33         1.33     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 06-Aug 08 2024

              Aug 06  Aug 07  Aug 08
S1 or greater   20%     20%     20%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms through 08 Aug.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Aug 05 2024 1340 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 06-Aug 08 2024

              Aug 06        Aug 07        Aug 08
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 06-08 Aug.
                        

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