Geomagnetic Storm Forecast

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3-Day Forecast - 2024 Oct 01 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Oct 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 01-Oct 03 2024 is 1.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 01-Oct 03 2024

             Oct 01       Oct 02       Oct 03
00-03UT       1.33         1.67         1.67     
03-06UT       1.33         1.33         1.33     
06-09UT       1.33         1.33         1.33     
09-12UT       1.67         1.33         1.67     
12-15UT       1.67         1.33         1.67     
15-18UT       1.67         1.33         1.33     
18-21UT       1.33         1.67         1.33     
21-00UT       1.33         1.67         1.33     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 01-Oct 03 2024

              Oct 01  Oct 02  Oct 03
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Sep 30 2024 2359 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 01-Oct 03 2024

              Oct 01        Oct 02        Oct 03
R1-R2           50%           50%           50%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance or R3 or greater events, over 30 Sep-02 Oct.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Sep 30 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Sep 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 30-Oct 02 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 30-Oct 02 2024

             Sep 30       Oct 01       Oct 02
00-03UT       3.00         1.33         1.67     
03-06UT       2.00         1.33         1.33     
06-09UT       4.00         1.33         1.33     
09-12UT       2.00         1.67         1.33     
12-15UT       2.67         1.67         1.33     
15-18UT       1.00         1.67         1.33     
18-21UT       1.00         1.33         1.67     
21-00UT       1.00         1.33         1.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 30-Oct 02 2024

              Sep 30  Oct 01  Oct 02
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Sep 29 2024 1441 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 30-Oct 02 2024

              Sep 30        Oct 01        Oct 02
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance or R3 or greater events, over 30 Sep-02 Oct.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Sep 29 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Sep 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 29-Oct 01 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 29-Oct 01 2024

             Sep 29       Sep 30       Oct 01
00-03UT       2.67         3.00         1.33     
03-06UT       2.00         2.00         1.33     
06-09UT       2.67         3.00         1.33     
09-12UT       1.67         2.00         1.67     
12-15UT       3.67         2.00         1.67     
15-18UT       1.67         1.00         1.67     
18-21UT       1.67         1.00         1.33     
21-00UT       2.67         2.00         1.33     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 29-Oct 01 2024

              Sep 29  Sep 30  Oct 01
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 29-Oct 01 2024

              Sep 29        Sep 30        Oct 01
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with
slight chance for R3 or greater events, over 29 Sep-01 Oct.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Sep 28 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Sep 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 28-Sep 30 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 28-Sep 30 2024

             Sep 28       Sep 29       Sep 30
00-03UT       1.67         2.00         3.00     
03-06UT       1.67         3.00         2.00     
06-09UT       1.33         2.00         3.00     
09-12UT       1.33         2.00         2.00     
12-15UT       1.33         3.67         2.00     
15-18UT       1.33         2.00         1.00     
18-21UT       1.00         1.67         1.00     
21-00UT       2.00         2.67         2.00     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 28-Sep 30 2024

              Sep 28  Sep 29  Sep 30
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 28-Sep 30 2024

              Sep 28        Sep 29        Sep 30
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 or greater activity, over 28-30 Sep.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2024 Sep 27 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Sep 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 27-Sep 29 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 27-Sep 29 2024

             Sep 27       Sep 28       Sep 29
00-03UT       2.00         1.67         2.00     
03-06UT       2.00         1.67         3.00     
06-09UT       1.00         1.33         2.00     
09-12UT       1.67         1.33         2.00     
12-15UT       1.00         1.33         3.67     
15-18UT       1.00         1.33         2.00     
18-21UT       1.00         1.00         1.67     
21-00UT       2.00         2.00         2.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 27-Sep 29 2024

              Sep 27  Sep 28  Sep 29
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Sep 26 2024 2312 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 27-Sep 29 2024

              Sep 27        Sep 28        Sep 29
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares are likely and there
is a slight chance for X-class (R3- Strong) flares on 27-29 Sep.
                        

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