Geomagnetic Storm Forecast

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3-Day Forecast - 2025 Feb 01 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Feb 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 01-Feb 03 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 01-Feb 03 2025

             Feb 01       Feb 02       Feb 03
00-03UT       2.33         3.00         2.33     
03-06UT       4.33         3.67         2.00     
06-09UT       4.67 (G1)    3.67         2.00     
09-12UT       5.00 (G1)    2.67         2.00     
12-15UT       3.33         2.00         2.00     
15-18UT       3.33         2.00         2.33     
18-21UT       3.00         2.00         2.00     
21-00UT       2.67         2.67         2.00     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are likely late on
01 Feb due to possible transient effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 01-Feb 03 2025

              Feb 01  Feb 02  Feb 03
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton levels have a slight chance of
reaching S1 (Minor) levels over 01 Feb - 03 Feb.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jan 31 2025 1406 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 01-Feb 03 2025

              Feb 01        Feb 02        Feb 03
R1-R2           55%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: Solar activity is likely to reach minor levels
(R1/R2-Minor/Moderate radio blackouts), with a slight chance for
isolated X-Class (R3-Strong) events, over 01 - 03 Feb, primarily due to
potential from an active region cluster in the NE quadrant.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2025 Jan 31 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Jan 31 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 31-Feb 02 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 31-Feb 02 2025

             Jan 31       Feb 01       Feb 02
00-03UT       2.00         3.67         3.00     
03-06UT       1.67         4.67 (G1)    3.67     
06-09UT       2.00         4.67 (G1)    3.67     
09-12UT       2.00         4.00         2.67     
12-15UT       2.00         3.33         2.00     
15-18UT       2.33         3.33         2.00     
18-21UT       2.67         3.00         2.00     
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    2.67         2.67     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are likely late on
31 Jan through 01 Feb due to possible transient effects. No significant
transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast for 02 Feb.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2025

              Jan 31  Feb 01  Feb 02
S1 or greater    1%      1%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2025

              Jan 31        Feb 01        Feb 02
R1-R2           45%           50%           60%
R3 or greater    5%            5%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackout
events through 01 Feb increasing to likely on 02 Feb.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2025 Jan 30 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Jan 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 30-Feb 01 2025 is 4.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 30-Feb 01 2025

             Jan 30       Jan 31       Feb 01
00-03UT       1.67         2.00         3.00     
03-06UT       1.67         2.67         2.00     
06-09UT       1.33         2.67         1.67     
09-12UT       1.33         2.33         2.33     
12-15UT       1.33         2.33         1.67     
15-18UT       1.33         2.67         2.67     
18-21UT       1.33         2.67         2.67     
21-00UT       1.67         2.33         4.33     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 30-Feb 01 2025

              Jan 30  Jan 31  Feb 01
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jan 29 2025 0408 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 30-Feb 01 2025

              Jan 30        Jan 31        Feb 01
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackout
events, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) events, through 01 Feb.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2025 Jan 29 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Jan 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 29-Jan 31 2025 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 29-Jan 31 2025

             Jan 29       Jan 30       Jan 31
00-03UT       2.67         1.67         2.00     
03-06UT       2.00         1.67         2.67     
06-09UT       2.33         1.33         2.67     
09-12UT       2.67         1.33         2.33     
12-15UT       2.33         1.33         2.33     
15-18UT       2.33         1.33         2.67     
18-21UT       2.33         1.33         2.67     
21-00UT       2.33         1.67         2.33     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 29-Jan 31 2025

              Jan 29  Jan 30  Jan 31
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.


C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jan 28 2025 1945 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 29-Jan 31 2025

              Jan 29        Jan 30        Jan 31
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackout
events, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) events, through 31 Jan.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2025 Jan 28 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Jan 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 28-Jan 30 2025 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 28-Jan 30 2025

             Jan 28       Jan 29       Jan 30
00-03UT       1.33         2.67         1.67     
03-06UT       1.33         2.00         1.67     
06-09UT       1.33         2.33         1.33     
09-12UT       1.33         2.67         1.33     
12-15UT       1.67         2.33         1.33     
15-18UT       1.67         2.33         1.33     
18-21UT       1.67         2.33         1.33     
21-00UT       1.33         2.33         1.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 28-Jan 30 2025

              Jan 28  Jan 29  Jan 30
S1 or greater    5%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.


C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jan 27 2025 0812 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 28-Jan 30 2025

              Jan 28        Jan 29        Jan 30
R1-R2           25%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    5%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 28 Jan, decreasing to a slight chance on 29-30 Jan. There is a slight
chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackout events on 28-30 Jan.
                        

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