Geomagnetic Storm Forecast

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3-Day Forecast - 2023 May 04 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 May 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 04-May 06 2023 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 04-May 06 2023

             May 04       May 05       May 06
00-03UT       2.67         1.67         2.00     
03-06UT       2.33         1.67         2.67     
06-09UT       2.67         0.67         3.00     
09-12UT       2.00         1.67         3.67     
12-15UT       2.00         1.33         3.67     
15-18UT       1.67         1.33         3.00     
18-21UT       2.00         1.33         2.33     
21-00UT       2.00         2.00         2.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 04-May 06 2023

              May 04  May 05  May 06
S1 or greater   10%      5%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 03 2023 1045 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 04-May 06 2023

              May 04        May 05        May 06
R1-R2           55%           55%           50%
R3 or greater   15%           10%           10%

Rationale: Isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely on
04-05 May, with a slight chance of an R3 (Strong) event on 04-06
May. The increased radio blackout probability is primarily due to growth
of Region 3296 and increased activity from Region 3293. However, a
decrease to a chance of R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 06 May
is forecast due to rotation of Region 3288 beyond the limb and the more
recent weakening trend of Region 3293.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 May 03 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 May 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 03-May 05 2023 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 03-May 05 2023

             May 03       May 04       May 05
00-03UT       4.00         2.67         1.67     
03-06UT       3.33         2.33         1.67     
06-09UT       3.00         2.67         1.33     
09-12UT       2.33         2.00         1.67     
12-15UT       1.33         2.00         1.33     
15-18UT       1.67         1.67         1.33     
18-21UT       2.00         2.00         1.33     
21-00UT       2.67         2.00         1.33     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 03-May 05 2023

              May 03  May 04  May 05
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 03-May 05 2023

              May 03        May 04        May 05
R1-R2           50%           50%           50%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance of isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts, and a slight chance of an R3 (Strong) event on 03-05 May due
to the combined flare probabilities of all visible active regions, in
particular the more complex Regions 3288 and 3293.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 May 02 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 May 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 02-May 04 2023 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 02-May 04 2023

             May 02       May 03       May 04
00-03UT       3.33         4.00         2.33     
03-06UT       3.67         3.33         2.33     
06-09UT       3.67         3.00         2.00     
09-12UT       3.00         2.33         2.00     
12-15UT       2.00         1.33         2.00     
15-18UT       2.00         1.67         2.00     
18-21UT       4.00         2.00         2.00     
21-00UT       4.00         2.67         2.00     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 02-May 04 2023

              May 02  May 03  May 04
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 01 2023 1309 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 02-May 04 2023

              May 02        May 03        May 04
R1-R2           50%           50%           50%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
and a slight chance of an R3 (Strong) event on 02-04 May due primarily
to the flare probability contributions of Regions 3288 and 3293.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 May 01 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 May 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 01-May 03 2023 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 01-May 03 2023

             May 01       May 02       May 03
00-03UT       4.00         3.33         4.00     
03-06UT       3.00         3.00         3.33     
06-09UT       3.00         2.00         3.00     
09-12UT       2.33         2.00         2.33     
12-15UT       1.33         3.00         1.33     
15-18UT       1.67         2.00         1.67     
18-21UT       2.00         4.00         2.00     
21-00UT       3.00         4.00         2.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 01-May 03 2023

              May 01  May 02  May 03
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 30 2023 2028 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 01-May 03 2023

              May 01        May 02        May 03
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
through 03 May.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 Apr 30 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Apr 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 30-May 02 2023 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 30-May 02 2023

             Apr 30       May 01       May 02
00-03UT       4.00         4.00         3.33     
03-06UT       3.00         3.00         3.00     
06-09UT       4.00         3.00         2.00     
09-12UT       2.00         2.33         2.00     
12-15UT       1.00         1.33         3.00     
15-18UT       2.00         1.67         2.00     
18-21UT       3.00         2.00         4.00     
21-00UT       3.00         3.00         4.00     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2023

              Apr 30  May 01  May 02
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2023

              Apr 30        May 01        May 02
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
through 02 May.
                        

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