Geomagnetic Storm Forecast

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3-Day Forecast - 2023 Jun 16 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Jun 16 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 16-Jun 18 2023 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 16-Jun 18 2023

             Jun 16       Jun 17       Jun 18
00-03UT       6.00 (G2)    3.33         2.33     
03-06UT       4.33         3.33         2.67     
06-09UT       3.33         3.00         2.00     
09-12UT       3.33         2.33         2.33     
12-15UT       3.00         2.33         2.00     
15-18UT       3.00         2.33         2.00     
18-21UT       2.33         2.00         1.67     
21-00UT       3.00         2.00         1.67     

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are expected
early on 16 Jun due to CIR/CH HSS onset.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 16-Jun 18 2023

              Jun 16  Jun 17  Jun 18
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 16-Jun 18 2023

              Jun 16        Jun 17        Jun 18
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: A slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) will persist
throughout the forecast period primarily in response to ARs 3333, 3335,
and 3336.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 Jun 15 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Jun 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 15-Jun 17 2023 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 15-Jun 17 2023

             Jun 15       Jun 16       Jun 17
00-03UT       1.33         2.33         2.33     
03-06UT       1.67         2.67         2.33     
06-09UT       1.67         3.00         2.00     
09-12UT       1.67         3.67         2.00     
12-15UT       1.33         3.00         2.33     
15-18UT       2.00         3.67         2.67     
18-21UT       2.67         2.67         3.00     
21-00UT       3.00         1.67         3.00     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 15-Jun 17 2023

              Jun 15  Jun 16  Jun 17
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 15-Jun 17 2023

              Jun 15        Jun 16        Jun 17
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: A slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) will persist
throughout the forecast period primarily in response to ARs 3333, 3335,
and 3336.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 Jun 14 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Jun 14 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 14-Jun 16 2023 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 14-Jun 16 2023

             Jun 14       Jun 15       Jun 16
00-03UT       2.67         1.33         2.33     
03-06UT       1.33         1.33         2.67     
06-09UT       1.33         1.67         3.00     
09-12UT       0.67         1.33         3.67     
12-15UT       1.33         1.33         3.00     
15-18UT       1.67         2.33         3.67     
18-21UT       2.00         2.67         2.67     
21-00UT       1.33         3.00         1.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 14-Jun 16 2023

              Jun 14  Jun 15  Jun 16
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 14-Jun 16 2023

              Jun 14        Jun 15        Jun 16
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: A slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) will persist
throughout the forecast period.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 Jun 13 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Jun 13 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 13-Jun 15 2023 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 13-Jun 15 2023

             Jun 13       Jun 14       Jun 15
00-03UT       1.67         1.33         1.33     
03-06UT       1.67         1.67         1.33     
06-09UT       2.00         1.33         1.67     
09-12UT       2.00         1.67         1.33     
12-15UT       2.67         1.67         1.33     
15-18UT       2.67         1.33         1.33     
18-21UT       2.67         1.33         1.67     
21-00UT       3.00         1.33         1.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 13-Jun 15 2023

              Jun 13  Jun 14  Jun 15
S1 or greater    1%      1%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 13-Jun 15 2023

              Jun 13        Jun 14        Jun 15
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: A slight chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) will persist
throughout the forecast period primarily due to the potential currently
exhibited by AR 3327 (S15W40, Esi/Beta) and AR 3331 (S23E03,
Csi/Beta-Gamma).
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 Jun 12 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Jun 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 12-Jun 14 2023 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 12-Jun 14 2023

             Jun 12       Jun 13       Jun 14
00-03UT       2.00         3.67         1.33     
03-06UT       1.33         2.00         1.67     
06-09UT       1.33         2.00         1.33     
09-12UT       1.33         2.67         1.67     
12-15UT       3.00         2.67         1.67     
15-18UT       2.00         2.67         1.33     
18-21UT       1.00         2.67         1.33     
21-00UT       2.00         3.00         1.33     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 12-Jun 14 2023

              Jun 12  Jun 13  Jun 14
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 12-Jun 14 2023

              Jun 12        Jun 13        Jun 14
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on Jun 12-14.
                        

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