Geomagnetic Storm Forecast

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3-Day Forecast - 2023 Aug 01 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Aug 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 01-Aug 03 2023 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 01-Aug 03 2023

             Aug 01       Aug 02       Aug 03
00-03UT       2.33         4.67 (G1)    2.33     
03-06UT       1.67         4.00         2.67     
06-09UT       1.00         3.67         2.67     
09-12UT       1.33         3.33         2.33     
12-15UT       1.67         2.67         2.33     
15-18UT       2.67         2.00         2.33     
18-21UT       3.00         2.33         2.33     
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    2.00         2.00     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 01-02 Aug due to
possible CME influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 01-Aug 03 2023

              Aug 01  Aug 02  Aug 03
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms all three days mainly due to the flare potential and
favorable location of Region 3380.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Aug 01 2023 0657 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 01-Aug 03 2023

              Aug 01        Aug 02        Aug 03
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor) or greater radio
blackouts, and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) all three days due to the
potential and recent activity from Region 3380.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 Jul 31 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Jul 31 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 31-Aug 02 2023 is 5.33 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 31-Aug 02 2023

             Jul 31       Aug 01       Aug 02
00-03UT       1.67         1.67         4.67 (G1)
03-06UT       1.33         4.00         4.00     
06-09UT       2.00         5.33 (G1)    3.67     
09-12UT       2.00         5.00 (G1)    3.33     
12-15UT       1.67         4.33         2.67     
15-18UT       1.67         3.33         2.00     
18-21UT       2.00         3.00         2.33     
21-00UT       2.67         4.67 (G1)    2.00     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 01-02 Aug due to
the anticipated arrival of a CME from 28 Jul.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 31-Aug 02 2023

              Jul 31  Aug 01  Aug 02
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms over 31 Jul-02 Aug.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 31 2023 0900 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 31-Aug 02 2023

              Jul 31        Aug 01        Aug 02
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely over 31
Jul-02 Aug.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 Jul 30 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Jul 30 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 30-Aug 01 2023 is 5.33 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 30-Aug 01 2023

             Jul 30       Jul 31       Aug 01
00-03UT       1.00         2.67         1.67     
03-06UT       2.67         3.00         4.00     
06-09UT       2.00         2.33         5.33 (G1)
09-12UT       2.33         2.33         5.00 (G1)
12-15UT       3.67         2.00         4.33     
15-18UT       3.00         1.67         3.33     
18-21UT       2.67         2.00         3.00     
21-00UT       3.00         2.67         4.67 (G1)

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm periods are likely on 01 Aug due
to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 28 Jul.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 30-Aug 01 2023

              Jul 30  Jul 31  Aug 01
S1 or greater   99%     50%      5%

Rationale: An S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm is in progress on 30 Jul
and there is a chance for S1 conditions to continue into early 31 Jul.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 30 2023 0822 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 30-Aug 01 2023

              Jul 30        Jul 31        Aug 01
R1-R2           50%           50%           50%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 30 Jul-01 Aug.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 Jul 29 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Jul 29 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 29-Jul 31 2023 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 29-Jul 31 2023

             Jul 29       Jul 30       Jul 31
00-03UT       2.33         2.67         2.67     
03-06UT       2.33         1.67         3.00     
06-09UT       1.00         2.67         2.33     
09-12UT       1.67         4.00         2.33     
12-15UT       1.33         3.67         2.00     
15-18UT       1.33         3.00         1.67     
18-21UT       2.00         2.67         2.00     
21-00UT       3.00         3.00         2.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 29-Jul 31 2023

              Jul 29  Jul 30  Jul 31
S1 or greater   99%     99%     15%

Rationale: S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate) solar radiation storms are expected on
29 Jul with S1 storms expected on 30 Jul.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 28 2023 1558 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 29-Jul 31 2023

              Jul 29        Jul 30        Jul 31
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts over 29-31
Jul.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 Jul 28 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Jul 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 28-Jul 30 2023 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 28-Jul 30 2023

             Jul 28       Jul 29       Jul 30
00-03UT       0.67         2.33         2.67     
03-06UT       0.67         2.00         1.67     
06-09UT       0.67         2.00         2.67     
09-12UT       0.67         2.00         4.00     
12-15UT       1.33         2.00         3.67     
15-18UT       1.33         2.00         3.00     
18-21UT       1.67         2.00         2.67     
21-00UT       1.67         2.33         3.00     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 28-Jul 30 2023

              Jul 28  Jul 29  Jul 30
S1 or greater    5%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 27 2023 2234 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 28-Jul 30 2023

              Jul 28        Jul 29        Jul 30
R1-R2           35%           25%           25%
R3 or greater    5%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 28-30 Jul.
                        

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