:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2022 Oct 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 01-Oct 03 2022 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 01-Oct 03 2022

            Oct 01     Oct 02     Oct 03
00-03UT        1          5 (G1)     5 (G1)
03-06UT        0          5 (G1)     5 (G1)
06-09UT        0          4          4     
09-12UT        1          3          3     
12-15UT        2          3          3     
15-18UT        4          3          3     
18-21UT        5 (G1)     4          3     
21-00UT        6 (G2)     5 (G1)     4     

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 01-03
Oct due to positive polarity CH HSS onset combined with a CME arrival on
01 Oct.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 01-Oct 03 2022

              Oct 01  Oct 02  Oct 03
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Sep 30 2022 1622 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 01-Oct 03 2022

              Oct 01        Oct 02        Oct 03
R1-R2           50%           50%           50%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) and a slight
chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts on 01-03 Oct.