:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2022 Dec 07 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 07-Dec 09 2022 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 07-Dec 09 2022

             Dec 07       Dec 08       Dec 09
00-03UT       1.00         4.33         2.67     
03-06UT       1.33         4.67 (G1)    2.67     
06-09UT       0.67         3.67         2.00     
09-12UT       3.00         3.00         2.00     
12-15UT       2.00         3.00         1.67     
15-18UT       2.67         2.67         2.00     
18-21UT       4.00         2.33         2.00     
21-00UT       4.00         3.00         2.33     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 08 Dec due to CH
HSS influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 07-Dec 09 2022

              Dec 07  Dec 08  Dec 09
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 07-Dec 09 2022

              Dec 07        Dec 08        Dec 09
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts on 07-09
Dec.