:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Feb 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 01-Feb 03 2023 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 01-Feb 03 2023

             Feb 01       Feb 02       Feb 03
00-03UT       2.67         1.67         1.67     
03-06UT       3.00         1.33         1.33     
06-09UT       1.67         1.33         1.33     
09-12UT       1.67         1.33         1.33     
12-15UT       1.67         1.33         1.33     
15-18UT       1.33         1.33         1.33     
18-21UT       1.33         1.67         1.67     
21-00UT       1.67         1.67         1.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 01-Feb 03 2023

              Feb 01  Feb 02  Feb 03
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 01-Feb 03 2023

              Feb 01        Feb 02        Feb 03
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts through 03 Feb, and a lesser chance for R3 (Strong) or greater
radio blackouts.